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CoinucationPi Cycle Top indicator
The 111-day moving average against twice the 350-day moving average. Every past crossover came within days of a cycle peak.
- On October 12, 2026 the 111-day moving average is $71,646 and twice the 350-day moving average is $154,691: the short average is 53.7% below the trigger, so there is no signal.
- For the signal to fire from here, the 111-day average would need to rise 53.7% relative to the long average.
- Crossovers in our data: December 16, 2017 at $19,650; April 12, 2021 at $59,840.
- Bitcoin's close is $82,444.
How it works
The Pi Cycle Top indicator, introduced by Philip Swift in 2019, compares a 111-day simple moving average of Bitcoin's price with a 350-day simple moving average multiplied by two. The ratio 350 / 111 is 3.153, close to pi, which is where the name comes from. When the fast average crosses above the doubled slow average, the indicator flags a cycle top. In 2013 (twice), 2017 and 2021 the crossover came within three days of the peak.
Coinucation computes both averages from its own daily closes rather than reading a published value, and lists every crossover in the data it holds.
Limits
Four hits is a tiny sample, and each cycle has looked less like the last. The indicator reacts to the shape of a parabolic advance; if Bitcoin grinds higher without one, the averages may never cross and the top will come anyway, or they may cross well before a top. Use it as one input, not a trigger.
Frequently asked questions
Has the Pi Cycle Top fired?
No. As of Oct 12, 2026 the 111-day average is $71,646, 53.7% below the $154,691 trigger.
What are the 111-day and 350-day moving averages?
Simple averages of the last 111 and 350 daily closes. The indicator doubles the 350-day figure and watches for the 111-day line to rise above it.
How accurate has it been?
It marked the April and December 2013 tops, the December 2017 top and the April 2021 top within a few days. It did not fire at the November 2021 all-time high.
Prices, flows and statistics are informational, not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose your whole stake. Ownership and conflict disclosure.