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CoinucationBitcoin rainbow chart
Bitcoin's price against a logarithmic regression fitted to Coinucation's own daily closes, split into nine bands from fire sale to extreme.
- Bitcoin closed at $82,444 on October 12, 2026, inside the "Below trend" band (band 6 of 9, counted from the top).
- The regression centre line is $142,619 today; price is -42% below it.
- Over the last 365 days Bitcoin spent most time in the "Below trend" band (208 days).
- Past cycle peaks landed in: 2017 top "Extreme", 2021 top "Overheated".
- Fit: log10(price) = 2.5017 x ln(days since genesis) - 16.8059, using Coinucation's own closes.
Days in each band, last year
| Band | Days | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme | 0 | 0% |
| Overheated | 0 | 0% |
| Frothy | 0 | 0% |
| Elevated | 0 | 0% |
| Fair value | 68 | 19% |
| Below trend · today | 208 | 57% |
| Cheap | 89 | 24% |
| Deep value | 0 | 0% |
| Fire sale | 0 | 0% |
How this chart is built
The rainbow chart draws Bitcoin's price on a logarithmic scale and overlays a logarithmic regression: a line of the form log10(price) = a x ln(days since the genesis block) + b, fitted by least squares to every daily close Coinucation holds (4,103 days from Jul 20, 2015 to Oct 12, 2026). The nine bands are evenly spaced in log space around that line, each about 1.5x wider than the one below it, so the same band means the same distance from trend in percentage terms whatever the year.
Because we refit the regression on our own data rather than copying the coefficients published elsewhere, the bands shift slightly as history accrues. The band labels are ours and are descriptive, not advice.
What it means and does not mean
The chart compresses fifteen years of price into one trend and makes the cycles easy to see: every previous peak reached the top two bands and every bear-market bottom touched the bottom two. It says nothing about timing. Price has spent years in the middle bands, and a regression fitted to past growth has no reason to hold if Bitcoin's adoption curve changes. Treat it as a map of where price sits relative to its own history, not a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
What band is Bitcoin in right now?
As of October 12, 2026 Bitcoin at $82,444 is in the "Below trend" band, -42% below the regression centre of $142,619.
Is the rainbow chart a prediction?
No. It is a regression on past prices. It describes where price sits relative to its historical trend and has no predictive power beyond the assumption that the trend continues.
Why are the bands different from other rainbow charts?
Other versions use fixed coefficients published years ago. Coinucation refits the regression to its own daily closes each time the page renders, so the centre line and bands move slightly as new data arrives.
Where does the price history come from?
Coinbase Exchange daily candles back to 2015, layered with CoinGecko for the latest year, stored in Coinucation's own history table and refreshed every 20 minutes.
Prices, flows and statistics are informational, not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose your whole stake. Ownership and conflict disclosure.